What Would Andy Burnham Do As PM: Part 1
How The King Of The North Will Take The Iron Throne
In this multi-parter, we take a deep dive into Mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham, who could ultimately replace Keir Starmer as prime minister. We consider his electability and his likely policies, and what they would mean for the country. This is part 1, in which we provide some background and assess the route to power for Burnham.
Keir Starmer’s Labour government is not doing well. Since coming into power in July 2024, Labour have seriously struggled. Having won 34% of the popular vote in 2024’s election, their share has fallen to just 19% per Politico’s poll of polls (26 Jan). Things could be worse if the main opposition Conservative party got its act together. They themselves are polling poorly on just 17% of the vote.
Radical parties on the right (Reform) and the left (the Greens) have increased their popularity as the tough political backdrop has favoured their brand of politics (touting simple solutions to tough problems). Despite the poor performance, Starmer has been adamant that he will remain at the helm of his government, and that he will still be in the hot seat come both January 2027 and the next general election in 2029.
While these are his intentions, he may not be in control of his fate. His own poor popularity and that of his party have led to intense speculation of a coming leadership challenge, with Polymarket odds putting a Labour Leadership election by 30 June 2026 at around 50% likelihood.
This appears to have driven an atmosphere of suspicion in the government, with some pretty weird briefing from the centre in November. This focussed around an attempt to head off an apparent leadership challenge from Health Minister Wes Streeting (a challenge which appeared to be non-existent).
Streeting is probably the best media operator within the government, and escaped the ordeal in a light-hearted manner, buoying his own credentials while Starmer was damaged. This whole episode paradoxically buoyed Streeting’s chances of becoming PM, as can been seen in odds from Kalshi:
As can be seen in the thick red line above, the Streeting fiasco came amid a more obvious leadership challenge for Starmer.
Enter stage left, Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, King of the North.
Andy Burnham has long held leadership ambitions. He contested Labour’s leadership elections in both 2010 (coming 4th) and 2015 (coming 2nd), and in September, gave the New Statesman an exclusive which looked suspiciously like a leadership challenge launch (inconspicuously titled “Andy Burnham’s plan for Britain”).
This included extolling his own political ideology, Manchesterism, “as neither Blue Labour nor soft left, Blairite nor Brownite, but a form of consensual, business-friendly socialism that seeks to retake public control of all essential services, from housing to transport, in order to make life “doable” for those trapped in the insecure world of Britain’s outsourced Serco economy.”
Burnham has the respect of the more left-leaning Labour membership for remaining in the Shadow Cabinet after losing to Jeremy Corbyn in 2015’s leadership election. He has the respect of the unions for his support of the NHS and workers who couldn’t work from home during the pandemic. He has the respect of (many in) the parliamentary Labour party for his mayorship being one of only a few examples of successful Labour policy in recent years. And, he has the respect of the general public as is demonstrated by stronger outturns than the rest of the politicians in his party in opinion polls.
However, Burnham still languishes behind his Labour compatriots Wes Streeting and Angela Rayner in likelihood to become the next PM. This is for one simple reason. He is not a member of parliament, which is a pre-requisite of becoming PM, while the other two are.
And, as Burnham found out on 24 January, it is extra hard for him in particular to become an MP, because the government appear not to want him to be an MP. Burnham put his name forward to be Labour’s candidate in the Gorton and Denton by-election; however, his candidacy was rejected in an 8 vs 1 vote in Labour’s National Executive Committee (NEC).
