Reading List

On this page, I share the most interesting content I have been reading recently:

July 2026:

The Economic Impact Of Brexit – NBER (paper), June 2026 (revised):

We estimate that by the end of 2025, the UK economy was approximately 8% smaller than it would have been without Brexit, based on macro data, and 6% smaller using firm-level micro data. Investment is estimated to have been 12-13% lower, employment 3-4% lower and productivity also 3-4% lower than it would have been if the UK had not voted to leave the EU.

We show that Brexit generated a large, broad and long-lasting increase in uncertainty. This contributed to lower business investment, in particular, but it also may have reduced productivity too by restraining innovation and spending on potentially productivity enhancing forms of capital expenditure. We also show how the time and resources firms devoted to preparing for Brexit were strongly correlated with lower productivity. These channels have potentially been more important than …