Interesting thanks James - my sense in the re bound in GBP also helped by the rebound in stocks, though one concern for GBP maybe the fiscal squeeze to come.
BUT I would also consider funding in JPY. Lot of posts today about the jump in inflation expectations in Japan. But is that really positive for the JPY? 10 year rates at 1.5%, inflation at 2%. Unless you tell me the BOJ will aggressively hike to bring down inflation expectations… the BOJ as guilty as the rest of the global central banks. Look through inflation..
Which all also supports the bullish XAU view
One last thing - recession fears appear to be a bit overdone,
Hey Michael, agreed re the rebound in stocks, especially vis a vis the sell off in the US - can say the same thing about EURUSD
Interesting re JP, pricing is for a policy rate up at 1.00% come mid 2026, would be quite a shift up if they did more than that - maybe you’re right but I do still see a much more compelling case for CHF as the funder (+ i have my bias of being much more familiar with CH/SNB)
The woodford piece is an interesting take, unsure i fully agree with all of it but fundamentally the US economy looked fine into Jan albeit with a few labour market cracks - atlanta nowcast was probs overdone but idk, it’s hard to tell the impacts of the uncertainty on investment now and the surveys are so partisan that theyre useless - i’m biasing lower equities still, slowing us growth, but no recession - i actually think you can square this with the administration seeking lower 10yr yields (albeit agreed manufacturing a recession to get lower yields wouldnt be smart)
++agreed re fiscal squeeze, let’s see where things end up, i flagged last week a possible little income tax hike (probs autumn statement not spring) - let’s see
Gold is looking really good, as is short EURGBP (unsure if I’ve posted on this or if it was just in my head!), also thinking about long GBPNOK into 2 April on a tariff risk trade on the idea that GBP may gain on tariffs and NOK suffers on its SPX correlation (might be best just as USDNOK)
Interesting thanks James - my sense in the re bound in GBP also helped by the rebound in stocks, though one concern for GBP maybe the fiscal squeeze to come.
BUT I would also consider funding in JPY. Lot of posts today about the jump in inflation expectations in Japan. But is that really positive for the JPY? 10 year rates at 1.5%, inflation at 2%. Unless you tell me the BOJ will aggressively hike to bring down inflation expectations… the BOJ as guilty as the rest of the global central banks. Look through inflation..
Which all also supports the bullish XAU view
One last thing - recession fears appear to be a bit overdone,
https://www.woodfordviews.com/post/calm-analysis-or-hysteria
and China appears to be helping. ‘Risk’ probably continues to be ok.
Hey Michael, agreed re the rebound in stocks, especially vis a vis the sell off in the US - can say the same thing about EURUSD
Interesting re JP, pricing is for a policy rate up at 1.00% come mid 2026, would be quite a shift up if they did more than that - maybe you’re right but I do still see a much more compelling case for CHF as the funder (+ i have my bias of being much more familiar with CH/SNB)
The woodford piece is an interesting take, unsure i fully agree with all of it but fundamentally the US economy looked fine into Jan albeit with a few labour market cracks - atlanta nowcast was probs overdone but idk, it’s hard to tell the impacts of the uncertainty on investment now and the surveys are so partisan that theyre useless - i’m biasing lower equities still, slowing us growth, but no recession - i actually think you can square this with the administration seeking lower 10yr yields (albeit agreed manufacturing a recession to get lower yields wouldnt be smart)
++agreed re fiscal squeeze, let’s see where things end up, i flagged last week a possible little income tax hike (probs autumn statement not spring) - let’s see
Gold I mean
Good working James
https://on.ft.com/4jfvQVJJapan has not yet conquered deflation, finance minister warns
Wrong type of inflation in Japan.
Very good shout from yourself - I guess there will be a time to be long yen but it is not yet!
Thanks James
(I was on the wrong side of it of course 😂🥲)
Gold is working tho
Gold is looking really good, as is short EURGBP (unsure if I’ve posted on this or if it was just in my head!), also thinking about long GBPNOK into 2 April on a tariff risk trade on the idea that GBP may gain on tariffs and NOK suffers on its SPX correlation (might be best just as USDNOK)