100 Substack Articles 🥳

JB Macro has hit 100 articles (whoop) with this note right here. This feels like a good point to take a step back and assess how our journey is going so far, and where we are heading. For those impatient for more macro, we have a longer piece coming Tuesday on just why the US savings ratio is so low and what the risks to the macro environment on that are.

But for now, I want to say thank you to my subscribers, all 981 of you. Some of you have been here from the get go in July 2024, and others are newer.

We’ve also taken the jump in mid-January to try make some money from this bitch, so thank you to our paid subscribers. For real though, a lot of work goes into this blog, and I am really grateful that some of you have taken out a paid sub. Our current format is alternating free and paid posts, with 2-3 articles coming every week. That’s a lot of macro, and it feels good.

As to our first 99 posts, we have come on a big ol’ journey. We learnt a lot, had a load of good calls and plenty of bad calls (luckily for us, we have had many more good than bad).

Leaving aside the market calls, the most valuable content that we have put out appears to be the pieces where we take a step back and think deeply about a really big concept.

To close this out, I thought it made sense for us to run through the notable ones from these:

Our most successful piece by far was a two parter on “Why the next decade will be hard”. The success likely came as we incorporated the sexiest chart I’ve ever made:

The note revolved around the notion that after the supply side has been very supportive for 40 years, things are heading into reverse with supply suddenly starting to be the binding constraint. This looks to mean more volatile inflation and GDP which should reverberate periodically through markets.

Our second most successful piece asked the question “How does the UK economy work?” Many economists don’t actually ever stop to think deeply about how the economies they cover actually function, and we thought it made sense to run through what we actually mean when we are talking about the UK economy.

Third, we made an attempt to make some sense out of modern monetary theory (MMT), in a note that seemed to rile a few people up. While some politicians (e.g. Zack Polanski) seem to not understand MMT, using it as an excuse to spend freely, there is plenty of good in the theory. While we should be suspicious of those who use the theory as a means to an end, the idea that we should think about government credit creation holistically alongside private credit creation, while considering real economy limits on growth is important.

Here’s to another 100 articles of rants, applying macro theory to reality, and trying to overcome the moron premium.

Thanks guys

James

JB Macro is my blog, where I splurge out my brain. I’m building a following for my passion, writing about economics and markets, and it would be really great to have you on board. Please consider pressing the subscribe button below. Thank you, James.

This newsletter is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or an offer to invest. The views expressed herein are the opinions of JB Macro exclusively. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with professional advisors before making any investment decisions.